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2017.10.30

UPDATED: First Indictments in FBI's Russia Probe

The Untouchables


Image credit: FBI

 

Revealed this morning were the first US government criminal indictments against actors in Special Council Robert Mueller III's probe into Russian government interference in the 2016 US national elections.

The indictment of former Trump campaign chairman Mr. Paul Manafort and business partner Mr. Rick Gates reads a lot like scenes at the end of The Untouchables. The movie tells the story of how notorious mobster Al Capone (pictured) was brought to trial by Elliot Ness and his team of US Treasury agents, and was convicted of tax evasion charges in 1931. 1

The Capone case was a landmark in the sense that the US government could use a tool as comparatively lame as tax evastion to bust up a multi-million dollar bootlegging, prostitution, and gambling enterprise and bring to justice the principal player in the Chicago underworld.

Why Compare Manafort and Gates to Al Capone?

I compare Messrs. Manafort and Gates to Al Capone for two reasons.

Like the case against Capone, the federal government traced the money: the indictment lays bare the men's work on behalf of a Ukrainian pro-Russian political party, the tens of millions of dollars they made, and the network of companies and accounts they used to launder the money. 2

And, like the case against Capone, Manafort and Gates failed to declare these earnings as (taxable) income; ergo, income tax evasion became the tool the US Government used to indict.

UPDATE: Jennifer Westhoven on CNN Headline News' "Morning Express with Robin Meade" pointed out that the personal spending particularly Manafort did was accomplished by wiring money directly from the overseas accounts to US businesses. I suspect one might argue that, since the money never actually went through Manafort in the US, he avoids responsibility for personal income tax. This could be why the federal government had to prove that Manafort (a US citizen) earned and hid the money in the offshore accounts.

Building their Case

I suspect perhaps this indictment was made possible perhaps as a second step, following the admission of a former Trump campaign adviser that he'd lied to the FBI regarding connections to the government of Russia. Court documents show the adviser, Mr. George Papadopoulos, "repeatedly tried to arrange a meeting between the Trump campaign and Russian government officials." 3

One assumes a relationship between the two actions in the context of the Russia probe — perhaps simply establishing evidence that campaign advisors had ties to the Russian government.

I imagine step one in the FBI's cases was showing that arrangements for direct introductions were being made, and step two was perhaps showing that the Trump campaign was hiring advisors with at least indirect ties to Russia.

UPDATE: Reporting from the Washington Post suggests another target for the FBI could be Sam Clovis, a social conservative activist and former radio personality who served as national co-chairman of the Trump campaign and is currently awaiting Senate confirmation for a top position in the USDA. Mr. Papadopoulos is known to have communicated with Clovis regarding his infamous meeting in London in March, 2016. 4 The same reporting suggests that Mr. Papadopoulos likely "wore a wire" for the FBI in advance of getting a plea deal on October 5th, which could be cause for great concern among those "in Trump's orbit."

It should surprise no one that the FBI would play the long game here, leveraging Papadopoulos, Manafort and Gates to cultivate additional actionable intelligence later. There's much at stake, and the eyes of the world are watching.

 



Image credit: FBI



personal statement

Humor posts aside, I only seek to understand the events I describe in these posts, and to form an opinion after considering the material I've gathered. I believe we need leaders in Washington to act in the best interest of the United States as a citizen nation of the world, and who represent the interests of the people they serve above the interests of party affiliation.